Escalating War of Words Among Ethiopian Government and Eritrean Government Triggers Anxieties of Armed Clash

Increasing apprehensions have emerged regarding the possibility of warfare involving East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile discourse has escalated in the last month.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for passage to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has provoked a fierce rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in 2023 that his country's sea access was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the two countries have frequently been strained. After a prolonged struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a long sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it cut off from the sea.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict started in which numerous people were killed.

Recent Statements from Ethiopian Government

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed ownership of Eritrea's southern port of the port of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and implied the wish to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "corrected in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrean Answer to the Claims

Despite continuous threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to brief comments on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane G..

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea describing it as "hazardous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a strategy of reclaiming previous domains.

Government spokespeople cautioned on recently that moves to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Region

There have been no reports of major military movements in the frontier regions between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in the country, government media has displayed training completions of numerous trainees at multiple army bases.

The director of staff section of the defense force, General Hachalu, stated recently in an interview that the army was in a "secure situation" as "many thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a warning to our enemies".

Previous Origins of the Tension

For decades from the late 19th century, the territory was governed by Italian rulers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the British military before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in 1962 the ruler ended this system and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A extended armed struggle occurred, concluding with military reversal in the early 1990s. Independence was then approved by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their common border, resulting in war in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations continued at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders agreed to a statement that the conflict was finished – a decision that won Abiy the international recognition.

The both administrations were then allies in Ethiopia's recent internal conflict in the northern region.

Yet ties have subsequently deteriorated once more.